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Tag: Ubuzima

  • The Perils of Mass Coronavirus Testing #RwOT #Rwanda #Kanye

    South Korea's Drive-Through Testing For Coronavirus Is Fast — And ...

    The public health response to the new coronavirus continues to evolve rapidly, with states shutting down schools, restaurants, bars, vacation places, and even elections. At the same time, the nation’s capacity to test individuals continues to steadily ramp up. This has led some people asking, “Why don’t we do what South Korea does and just test anyone?”

    Test-kit availability aside, there are crucial issues to consider. For example, so long as the background level of infection is low, there are real downsides to mass testing, and good reasons to limit testing to individuals who show symptoms or have been in contact with people who have shown symptoms. The problem is that when the overall level of infection is low, the overwhelming majority of your positive test results from mass testing will be false positives.  This gives the public a false sense of what the actual mortality level is, a false sense of security in their own immunity status, and can contribute to future outbreaks. In fact, the mass testing in South Korea could be skewing their data. 
    To see why this might be the case, I draw upon this thread from Dr. Sterling Haring at Vanderbilt University, as well as my own statistical background. Like him, rather than walking through the actual math of Bayes Rule (I explore it here), I  utilize 2×2 charts. We’ll start with the claim from Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine last Thursday that 100,000 people in Ohio were infected. That seems high, but let’s take it.  That works out to a little less than 1% of the state’s population having the virus. So we have a society that looks something like this:
    What happens if everyone is tested?  If tests were perfect, this would be great.  But almost all of them come with errors. My understanding is that the quick test used in South Korean drive-throughs generates an error roughly one in 10 times (which would still be much more accurate than the rapid flu tests), while the test with the longer turnaround generates an error roughly one in 20 times.
    Let’s assume we tested everyone with the 90% accurate test. We would get a result that looks something like this:
    This is not bad.  Most of the people who have the virus get a positive reading.  What about the people who don’t have the illness?
    Most of them get a negative reading. The problem is that, since there are far more people that don’t have the virus than do have it, the 10% error rate for that group overwhelms the 90% accuracy rate for the group that does have it. You end up with a scenario where 93% of the people who test positive for the disease do not, in fact, have it.
    What’s the downside of false positives? There are a couple. First, it can skew your data.  A number of people have looked at South Korea’s findings and noted the relatively low mortality rate – dropping below 1%. The problem is that with widespread testing, a lot of people who tested positive there won’t actually have the disease in the first place. The virus will be less widespread than the data suggest, but also deadlier.
    Second, it can give people a false sense of confidence. We don’t know whether you can get the disease twice, and there are at least two strains of the virus floating around out there. The question is one of public perception. If people believe that you can only get it once – and the possibilities for disinformation on the Internet are legendary – and go out falsely believing that they are immune, then they are susceptible to actual infection from the people who had the sickness and falsely believed they did not have it. They can also conclude that they must have the flu or a cold and delay seeking medical treatment.
    What if we use the quick test for screening, and tell people that they need a follow-up if they get a positive reading? Giving the more accurate test to the subset of people who tested positive the first time around is useful – but the false positive rate is still 40%. And our false negative rate starts to creep up as well, with 15% of the people with the disease now getting a medical “all clear.”
    To be clear, none of this is meant to suggest that we shouldn’t test at all. It is simply to say that testing isn’t the panacea that many are hoping it is. After all, South Korea may have widely available drive-through testing, but it also pioneered social distancing and did extensive tracking of contacts with infected people. It is also important to emphasize that our scenario assumes the disease has not become widespread; if 5% of the population is infected, the false-positive rate from the second test plummets to just 10%. If we look only at the population that exhibits symptoms, it would be even lower.
    All this points toward a larger medium-term problem. The social distancing measures being implemented will likely result in fewer daily infections but also come at great societal costs and are likely untenable for more than a few months, if that. With an estimated 12 to 18 months to go until a vaccine is available, the relaxing of social distancing measures is likely not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning. More accurate testing may help, but absent that, we’re likely in for a bumpy ride.
    Sean Trende is senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is a co-author of the 2014 Almanac of American Politics and author of The Lost Majority. He can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @SeanTrende.


    source : https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/18/the_perils_of_mass_coronavirus_testing_142693.html

  • Coronavirus: Perezida wa Ghana yishyize mu kato #rwanda #RwOT

    Perezida wa Ghana, Nana Akufo-Addo yishyize mu kato k’iminsi 14 kubera inama yagiriwe n’abaganga nyuma yo guhura n’umuntu wanduye Coronavirus.

    source https://igihe.com/amakuru/muri-afurika/article/coronavirus-perezida-wa-ghana-yishyize-mu-kato

  • Coronavirus ku wa 05 Nyakanga: Amerika irasatira kugira abantu miliyoni eshatu banduye #rwanda #RwOT

    Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika ni cyo gihugu gikomeje kugira ubwandu bwinshi bwa Coronavirus, aho kugeza ubu abanduye bamaze kuba 2,935,770 mu gihe abapfuye bo ari 132,318.

    source https://igihe.com/ubuzima/coronavirus/article/coronavirus-ku-wa-05-nyakanga-amerika-irasatira-kugira-abantu-miliyoni-eshatu

  • USA : Umubare W’ abicwa na Corona wagabanyutse mu buryo bugaragara #RwOT #Rwanda #WebRwanda

    Ikigo gishinzwe kugenzura ikwirakwiza z’indwara z’andura muri America uratangaza ko umubare w’abari guhitanwa n’inrwara ya COVID-19 Wagabunyutse mu buryo bugaragara muri icyo Gihugu. Ibi bikaba byakomejwe gushimangirwa na Donald Trump, aho yavuze ati, “Impamvu dufite abanduye benshi ni uko twapimye benshi, gusa abahitanwa n’iycorezo cya Corona Virusi yaturutse mu bushinwa bakomeje kugabanyuka.

    Source : Twitter

  • Ingurube zo mu Bushinwa zabonetsemo indi virusi y’ibicurane ‘ishobora kuba icyorezo’ #rwanda #RwOT

    By Nsanzimana Ernest

    Abo bashakashatsi bahangayikishijwe nuko ishobora kwigabamo amashami y’izindi virusi kugira ngo ishobore gukwirakwira byoroshye iva ku muntu umwe ijya ku wundi, igateza icyorezo.
    Bavuga ko nubwo kuri ubu iyo virusi idateje ikibazo, yujuje “ibyangombwa byose” byuko ishobora kwanduza abantu ku rwego rwo hejuru, bikaba bicyenewe ko ikurikiranirwa hafi.
    Kandi kubera ko ari ubwoko bushya bw’iyi virusi, abantu bashobora kuba bafite ubwirinzi bw’umubiri bucye cyangwa nta nabwo kuri iyo virusi.
    Ubushakashatsi bwabo bwatangajwe mu kinyamakuru cy’ubushakashatsi cya ‘Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences’ cyo muri Amerika.
    Abo bahanga muri siyansi bavuga ko ingamba zo kurwanya iyo virusi mu ngurube, ndetse no gukurikirana abakora mu bijyanye n’ingurube, zikwiye guhita zishyirwa mu bikorwa.
    Ibyago byo kuba icyorezo
    Ubwoko bushya bubi bw’ibicurane buri mu ndwara za mbere zishobora kwaduka ku isi abahanga mu buvuzi bari gukurikiranira hafi, no muri iki gihe isi yugarijwe n’icyorezo cya coronavirus.
    Icyorezo cy’ibicurane isi iheruka guhura nacyo – ibicurane by’ingurube byo mu mwaka wa 2009 byatangiriye muri Mexique (Mexico) – ntabwo cyahitanye abantu benshi nkuko byari byitezwe.
    Ahanini byatewe nuko abantu benshi bageze mu zabukuru bari bafite ubwirinzi bw’umubiri burwanya iyo virusi, bishoboka ko ari uko yasaga n’izindi virusi z’ibicurane zabayeho ku isi mu myaka myinshi yabanje.
    Iyo virusi y’ibicurane y’icyo gihe, yahawe izina rya A/H1N1pdm09, kuri ubu ikingirwa mu rukingo rwa buri mwaka rw’ibicurane kugira ngo hizerwe ko koko abantu bayirinzwe.
    Ubu bwoko bushya bwa virusi y’ibicurane by’ingurube bwatahuwe mu Bushinwa busa n’ibyo bicurane by’ingurube byo mu 2009, ariko bufite n’impinduka nshya.
    Hari urukingo ifite ?
    Kugeza ubu, nta byago byinshi yari yateza, ariko Prof Kin-Chow Chang na bagenzi be bamaze igihe bayikoraho ubushakashatsi, bavuga ko ari iyo guhozaho ijisho.
    Iyi virusi nshya, abo bashakashatsi bayise G4 EA H1N1. Bavuga ko ishobora gukurira no kororokera mu turemangingo tw’ubuhumekero bwa muntu.
    Babonye gihamya y’ubwandu bwayo bushya bahereye ku bakozi bo mu mabagiro ndetse n’abakora mu bijyanye n’ingurube mu Bushinwa.
    Inkingo z’ibicurane ziriho kuri ubu bisa nkaho zitarinda iyi virusi nshya, nubwo zishobora guhindurwa ngo ziyirinde bibaye bicyenewe.
    Prof Kin-Chow Chang, ukora kuri Kaminuza ya Nottingham mu Bwongereza, yabwiye BBC ati :
    “Ubu turangajwe na coronavirus kandi reka iturangaze ni mu gihe. Ariko ntabwo tugomba kwirengagiza izindi virusi nshya zishobora guteza ibyago”.
    Nubwo iyi virusi nshya idateje ikibazo cy’aka kanya, agira ati : “Ntidukwiye kuyirengagiza”.
    Prof James Wood, ukuriye ishami ry’ubuvuzi bw’inyamaswa kuri Kaminuza ya Cambridge nayo yo mu Bwongereza, yavuze ko ubu bushakashatsi kuri iyi virusi nshya “buje nk’urwibutso rwiza” rwuko isi ihora iri mu byago byuko hari udukoko dushya twagaragara tugateza indwara.
    Ndetse ngo binibutsa ko amatungo yo mu rugo, agira aho ahurira henshi n’abantu kurusha izindi nyamaswa, ashobora kuba nyirabayazana y’ibyorezo biturutse kuri za virusi.
    BBC

  • Bafite uburwayi bwo mu mutwe ariko bagereranya nka Romeo na Juliet mu rukundo #rwanda #RwOT

    By Twahirwa Emmy
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    Mu gihugu cya Nigeria, haravugwa amakuru atangaje y’umugabo w’umurwayi wo mu mutwe n’umugore nawe ufite uburwayi bwo mu mutwe, bamaranye imyaka 22 bakaba bamaze kubyarana abana 3.
    Bivugwa ko  ko uyu mugabo witwa Samade afite impamyabumenyi ya Physics yakuye muri kaminuza ya Nigeriya mbere y’uko yiruka mu muhanda. Samade yari umufana wa buri muturage kubera ubushobozi n’ubuhanga. Intambwe ye yo kubyina n’ijwi ryiza ntishobora kwirengagizwa n’abahisi, yararirimbaga akabyina adafite ibikoresho bya muzika nyamara abamwumvaga bakamureba usanga bagira intimba ku mutima.Story Of Mad Couple Married For 22 Years With 3 Children (VIDEO ...
    Ubuzima bwe bw’urukundo  na Cynthia, undi muntu ufite uburwayi bwo mu mutwe bwatangaje benshi. Samade na Cynthia babanaga mu kwiyubaka ubwabo munsi y’ikiraro kizwi cyane ku masangano ya Orile ku myaka imyaka 22 bamaze babana.
    Inshuro nyinshi abaturage bagiye babona aba bombi basa nk’abatongana ariko nta muntu n’umwe uzi uko bakemura ibyo batumvikanaho.Ku bitangaje kandi, Samade na Cynthia ntibavuga ururimi rumwe. Impamvu ni uko Samade yavaga mu gice cyo hagati mu gihe Cynthia yakomokaga mu Burasirazuba bw’igihugu.Mad couple Archives | Face Of Malawi
    Ukuntu bemeye kubana nk’abashakanye bakabyara abana 3 ni ihurizo rigora buri muntu kuryumva, babagaho mu kwiruka mu muhanda ariko bakanyuzamo bagatungwa no gusabiriza, nta bwumvikane buke bafite, babuze abajyanama, ntibigeze bitabira amasomo yo gushyingirwa, nyamara babanye imyaka 22 nta nkomyi.
    Samade na Cynthia ubu bagereranwa na Romeo na Juliet ku isi yabo, nta kosa bagirana, ubumwe bwabo n’uburyo bagaragara basomana cyane mu munyenga w’urukundo, bahoberana, kandi basangira ibihe by’urukundo ni bimwe mu bitangaza abababona.
    Amakuru aturuka muri informationigeria yo aherutse kwemeza ko aba bombi baba barapfuye, aho Samade yapfuye nyuma gato Cythia nawe agapfa.

    Src:faceofmalawi    

  • Abantu 101 barimo abagororwa 72 b’i Ngoma banduye Coronavirus mu Rwanda #Rwanda #RwOT #webrwanda








    Minisiteri y’Ubuzima yatangaje ko abantu 101 barimo n’abagororwa basanganywe Coronavirus mu bipimo 2498 byafashwe kuri uyu wa Mbere, tariki ya 29 Kamena 2020.

    Ni ku nshuro ya mbere kuva umuntu wa mbere wanduye Coronavirus agaragaye mu
     Rwanda ku wa 14 Werurwe 2020, habonetse abarwayi benshi ba Coronavirus mu 
    munsi umwe.
    Itangazo rya Minisante rigaragaza ko abarwayi bashya bakuwe mu bice bitandukanye 
    by’igihugu.
    Rigira riti “Kigali:22, Rusizi:3, Rubavu:2, Kayonza:1, Kirehe:1 & mu itsinda ry’
    abagororwa muri Ngoma:72 bahuye n’abanduriye i Rusumo.’’
    Kuri uyu wa Mbere nta muntu wasezerewe mu bitaro byatumye umubare w’abamaze
    gukira uguma kuri 443.
    Mu gihe uduce twari twibasiriwe cyane n’ubwandu bushya turimo Kigali, Rusizi,
     Rubavu na Kirehe, ibipimo byafashwe uyu munsi byerekanye abarwayi bashya 
    i Ngoma, ahabonetse abagororwa 72 bahuye n’abanduriye ku Rusumo mu gihe i
     Kayonza ho hasanzwe umwe.
    Mu Rwanda haherukaga kuboneka abarwayi benshi mu munsi umwe ku wa 22 
    Kamena 2020 ubwo abantu 59 barimo ‘ab’i Kirehe (33), Rusizi (12), Kigali (7),
     Nyamasheke (4), Rubavu (3)’ basanzwemo Coronavirus.
    Kuva umurwayi wa mbere wa COVID-19 iterwa n’agakoko gashya ka Coronavirus 
    agaragaye mu Rwanda, hamaze kuboneka 1001 banduye mu bipimo 140 249 bimaze
     gufatwa, 443 barayikize mu gihe 556 bakiri mu bitaro naho babiri bitabye Imana.
    Kugeza ubu nta muti n’urukingo bya Coronavirus biraboneka, hakoreshwa uburyo
     bwo kuvura ibimenyetso by’iki cyorezo gusa, kugeza umubiri w’umuntu wubatse 
    ubudahangarwa, virus igashira ityo mu maraso.
    Ibimenyetso bya Coronavirus birimo inkorora, ibicurane, guhumeka bigoranye 
    n’umuriro. Yandura binyuze mu matembabuzi aturuka mu myanya y’ubuhumekero.
    Mu gukomeza kwirinda, abaturarwanda basabwa gukomeza kubahiriza amabwiriza 
    ya Leta hitabwa cyane cyane ku gukaraba intoki kenshi n’amazi n’isabune, 
    kwambara udupfukamunwa n’amazuru mu gihe umuntu avuye mu rugo
     cyangwa ahuye n’abantu benshi mu nsisiro cyangwa ahatuye imiryango myinshi.

  • Imyigaragambyo mu butaliyani #RwOT #Rwanda #COVID19

    Ku wa kabiri, abigaragambyaga babarirwa mu magana b’abataliyani bateraniye i Roma ya Piazza del Popolo, bajugunya masike mu myigaragambyo yo kwamagana leta y’Ubutaliyani gufunga bigamije kugenzura ikwirakwizwa rya COVID-19.

    Source : zerohedge

  • OMS yanenze uburyo icyorezo cya Coronavirus kirimo kugirwa ikibazo cya politiki

    Umuyobozi w’Umuryango Mpuzamahanga wita ku buzima (OMS), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreysus, yanenze ko harimo kubura ubufatanye bw’Isi yose mu kurwanya Coronavirus, asaba abayobozi kunga ubumwe mu rugamba rwo kurwanya iki cyorezo.

  • Igisobanuro cy’imibare y’abantu 59 bagaragaye baranduye Coronavirus

    Ikigo cy’Igihugu cy’Ubuzima, RBC, cyatangaje ko imibare mishya y’ubwandu bwa Coronavirus ishingiye ku bantu bazwi inkomoko yabo ku buryo umuntu atavuga ko ari abanduye bigoranye kuba bakurikiranwa.